Hurricane Polo, a powerful Pacific storm, is currently hundreds of miles off Mexico’s coast but is expected to bring significant changes to Southern California’s coastal conditions. While a direct hurricane strike on California remains unlikely, residents can anticipate large swells, potentially dangerous rip currents, and a surge of muggy tropical air beginning this weekend. Coastal conditions may become more challenging early next week.
The hurricane briefly intensified to a Category 5 storm on Tuesday before weakening to Category 4 strength by Wednesday morning, sustaining maximum winds of 150 mph. As of Wednesday morning, Polo was located approximately 165 miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, and was moving slowly north. Kristen L. Corbosiero, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the University at Albany, characterized Polo as "one of the strongest storms ever in the (Pacific) Basin."
The National Hurricane Center expects Polo to remain offshore, forecasting its core to curve northwest and then west-northwest, steering it away from the United States. Most computer models currently support this scenario. However, some “spaghetti models” and outlier projections indicate potential paths for Polo or its remnants toward the American Southwest, specifically Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, within the next seven to ten days. Some models even show the storm turning into the Gulf of California. Ross Ellet, a meteorologist with 13ABC, noted on Facebook that while a few models show this path, "most weather maps push this storm northwest away from land," adding that "This will need to be watched in the days ahead."
For California, the more immediate concern is not a direct landfalling hurricane but the effects from hundreds of miles away. Elevated surf is forecast along Southern California beaches from this weekend into next week, driven by several southerly swells. Bryan Lewis, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard, indicated that elevated surf could coincide with high tides on Monday and Tuesday, a combination that could increase the risk of coastal flooding.
This possibility of elevated surf puts Southern California beach communities back on alert, particularly following recent events. Just weeks ago, over Labor Day weekend, long-term residents of Long Beach experienced severe coastal impact. Waves struck the Alamitos Peninsula, causing damage to the waterfront boardwalk, eroding substantial stretches of sand, and pushing seawater into nearby streets. Evelina Mardirossian, a 77-year-old resident, described the rapid onset of flooding, stating that "within five minutes, the entire street became a lake." The flooding in Long Beach became severe enough to prompt mandatory evacuation orders for approximately 20 homes situated along the seawall between 63rd Place and 67th Place.
Irvine residents who frequent Southern California beaches or coastal areas should be aware of the developing conditions, including the forecast for strong rip currents and potential for coastal flooding. The National Weather Service will continue to provide updates as the storm progresses.
