A new study led by UC Irvine researchers concludes that unauthorized immigration does not increase crime rates in U.S. neighborhoods. The comprehensive research, published in the Journal of Urban Affairs, tracked crime trends across 11,500 neighborhoods nationwide between 2010 and 2018, encompassing 46 million residents.
Charis E. Kubrin, UC Irvine Chancellor’s Professor of Criminology, Law and Society and the study’s lead author, stated that the findings align with broader research. The study found that neighborhoods experiencing growth in their undocumented populations actually recorded greater reductions in property crime and no significant change in violent crime. Kubrin noted this outcome contradicts many claims, adding, "Honestly, I wasn’t too surprised."
This finding is not new to criminology research. Kubrin referenced the Wickersham Commission, which nearly 100 years ago published a report showing lower crime involvement among immigrants compared to native-born individuals. The current work by the UC Irvine team represents the first study to examine the relationship between unauthorized immigration and crime at the neighborhood level on such a national scale.
The study was co-authored by Derek Christopher of Stanford University, Cheyenne Hodgen and John Hipp of UC Irvine, and Xiaoshuang Iris Luo of the University of Akron. To estimate the undocumented population at the neighborhood level, the team accessed restricted individual-level Census data through a federal Research Data Center. Christopher, who earned an economics Ph.D. from UC Irvine in 2022, provided expertise on the imputation methods used, which are similar to those employed by the Department of Homeland Security. Christopher noted that while earlier studies examined this link at state and metropolitan-area levels, this research addresses neighborhood-specific concerns.
One finding from the study warranted closer examination: while aggravated assaults declined significantly and property crime fell in neighborhoods with growing undocumented populations, robberies saw an increase. The researchers believe this points toward victimization rather than perpetration by undocumented immigrants. John Hipp explained that an increase in robberies, despite other crime decreases, would be consistent with the idea that undocumented immigrants are more likely to be targets due to greater involvement in the cash economy and a reluctance to report crimes to police, fearing deportation. Researchers refer to this as the "Walking ATM" phenomenon, with prior neighborhood-level studies finding consistent evidence for it.
The study’s findings raise questions about the effectiveness and justification of current federal immigration enforcement policies, which often cite public safety as a primary reason. Kubrin argued there is little evidence to back up this claim, suggesting that these policies may be largely ineffective at enhancing public safety and could do more harm than good. Beyond the crime statistics, the research team referenced a study led by T. William Lester, UC Irvine associate professor of urban planning and public policy. Lester's research found that Orange County businesses lost nearly $59 million in economic output over just eight weeks following intensified federal immigration enforcement.
Kubrin concluded that current policies are not beneficial, advocating for a rethinking of immigration enforcement built on what she describes as a flawed premise of widespread immigrant criminality.
