UC Irvine researchers have concluded that unauthorized immigration does not increase crime rates in U.S. neighborhoods, according to a recent large-scale study. The research, led by Charis E. Kubrin, UC Irvine Chancellor’s Professor of Criminology, Law and Society, analyzed crime trends across more than 11,000 neighborhoods nationwide.
Published in the Journal of Urban Affairs, this study is notable for its granular, neighborhood-level analysis, a scope not seen in prior research on the subject. The research team, including Derek Christopher of Stanford University, Cheyenne Hodgen and John Hipp of UC Irvine, and Xiaoshuang Iris Luo of the University of Akron, examined data from 11,500 neighborhoods. These areas represent approximately 46 million residents in diverse U.S. cities, with crime trends tracked between 2010 and 2018.
The study’s findings indicate that neighborhoods experiencing an increase in their undocumented resident populations actually saw greater reductions in property crime. Furthermore, these neighborhoods showed no significant change in violent crime rates during the study period. Kubrin noted she was not surprised by these results, stating they align with the broader research base.
Kubrin points out that the disconnect between research findings and public belief is not new. She cited a report from the Wickersham Commission nearly a century ago, which found lower crime involvement among immigrants compared to native-born individuals. This historical finding was prominently reported by the New York Times at the time.
To accurately estimate the undocumented population at the neighborhood level, the research team utilized restricted individual-level Census data. Access was secured through a federal Research Data Center, where they applied an imputation method. This technique, similar to those employed by the Department of Homeland Security, relies on specialized expertise. Derek Christopher, who earned his economics Ph.D. from UC Irvine in 2022, played a crucial role in leveraging this methodology, which he adapted for the study. Christopher noted that such methods have existed for decades but have rarely been applied to the extensive data available in the RDC for this type of neighborhood-level analysis.
Previous studies investigating the link between unauthorized immigration and crime typically focused on broader state or metropolitan-area levels. Christopher emphasized the value of this neighborhood-level analysis in addressing specific community concerns. He explained that by providing answers to questions about localized impacts, the research helps both the general public and law enforcement understand where to focus efforts effectively.
One finding from the study required specific examination: while property crimes and aggravated assaults decreased significantly in neighborhoods with growing undocumented populations, robberies showed an increase. The research team attributes this not to increased perpetration by undocumented immigrants, but to increased victimization. John Hipp, another UC Irvine co-author, explained that undocumented individuals often have greater involvement in the cash economy, making them more likely to carry cash. This, combined with a reluctance to report crimes to police due to fear of deportation, makes them attractive targets, a phenomenon researchers refer to as the “Walking ATM.” Although the data could not definitively identify the immigration status of crime victims, the overall crime patterns support this interpretation.
The study's conclusions prompt questions regarding the efficacy of current federal immigration policies. Billions of dollars are allocated to immigration enforcement, often justified on public safety grounds. Kubrin stated that there is little evidence to support these claims. She argued, "Consistent with the research base more generally, unauthorized immigration does not drive crime rates in U.S. neighborhoods," suggesting that existing policies may be largely ineffective at enhancing public safety and could even cause more harm than good. She argued that these policies are based on a premise of widespread immigrant criminality, which she considers flawed.
Beyond the crime statistics, the researchers highlighted a wider social and economic impact of current policies. They pointed to a separate study led by T. William Lester, a UC Irvine associate professor of urban planning and public policy. That research indicated that Orange County businesses experienced an economic output loss of nearly $59 million over an eight-week period following intensified federal immigration enforcement. Kubrin summarized the situation, suggesting that such policies ultimately yield no victors.
